1-4 with likely 2 more losses to come this weekend….they gap between the team’s talent and record is starting to close and, like far too many other seasons, it seems June or July in Baltimore is where any hopes for a decent season go to die…..sigh - it was a fun half season at least.
This is far too pessimistic an outlook. Let me quote Butch Cassidy here: “Boy, a few dark clouds appear on your horizon, you just go all to pieces, don't you?"
I’m not pessimistic - the record is above the talent level and, over many years of watching baseball, I’ve seen overachieving teams sink to their talent level in the dog days of July and August.
I think that’s what the future holds for the 2026 Nationals, like it has for countless teams before. The only ray of hope is the run differential is in line with the record, but I think that will also go down, especially after the rich get richer at the deadline and the have nots start playing not for wins but to find out who’s part of a better team in the future. I think the Nats will be in that category and bring up Morales and King and others to see what they’ve got.
It will be great to be wrong and they may do better after this, in my mind near inevitable 1-6 week, but I just don’t see a good, .500 or better team here. The hitting is starting to regress and the pitching is some of the worst in MLB history. That translates to 72-90 to me, not 84-78 or something like that.
Your outlook is much healthier and the analyses you often offer here are informed and insightful. I appreciate those insights and I hope the Nationals exceed my expectations and meet yours this season.
And sometimes you have games you throw away. As well as steal from a team who returns the favor. You just can’t hang a season on one game’s bad result. The Nats have a significant flaw: it’s pitching. That flaw left uncorrected is going to result in those “thrown away” games. More like those losses are coming, in amongst the victories that the highest scoring offense delivers. But the team with the highest runs allowed is also going to lose games like that. Until the starting pitchers regularly make it through at least the 5th inning and occasionally the 6th, the bullpen will continue to throw the most innings in the league and be overworked. And that’s a bullpen with its own flaws that do not need to be exacerbated like that.
I was at tonight's game. Went to one earlier in Cleveland that was like a home run derby, this one was almost a no run derby. Oh well, better luck tomorrow night. Can't blame this one on the bullpen though.
Let this one sink in for a moment. Butera called James “one of the greatest hitters in the world”. Then why is he in the leadoff spot? He has 20 bombs, so far, and 14 of them have been solo shots. Who is he driving in? Certainly not the back end of the lineup. Why not put James in the 4th or 5th spot BEHIND guys that actually are getting on base. Try Crews or CJ or JY or Mead hitting ahead of James. Your best hitters should be in the 3-4-5 spots. FYI… the other 6 bombs have only come with 6 runners on base. Ricky Henderson hit leadoff because he got on base and stole a ton of bases. James only has 13 swipes this year.
For a while James Wood led the majors in OBP (not anymore) and he still leads the majors in runs and the league in walks. His 20 dingers and 49 RBI aren’t shabby. In general supposedly advance analytics decree your best batters should bat as high up in the lineup as possible to get the most chances to bat. Wood still leads the majors with Plate Appearances. It’s understandable that some people feel he shouldn’t lead off, but there is a justification for it. At least when he hits like he was for most of the first half.
“Why not put James in the 4th or 5th spot BEHIND guys that actually are getting on base.”
Who is actually getting on base more than James?
Answer: “Nobody.”
James leads the team in OBP and has more than double the walks (61) than the next closest teammate (Abrams, 30). James also has the second most RBI hitting leadoff.
Butera is not unschooled in lineup construction. Putting your best hitter at leadoff is the modern trend. Data shows it results in more runs. One reason is it insures your best hitter collects more PA and AB than every other player per game and over the course of the season, which in turn has a not-insignificant affect on season offensive numbers.
In MLB, the team that scores first wins the game 65-70% of the time. Those team-leading and leadoff bombs? A lot of those produce 1-0 leads.
Butera’s lineups with Wood batting leadoff have produced the highest scoring offense in the Major Leagues. This is NOT an area that needs improvement.
I’m starting to think JW needs the break to be an actual break, rather than being a back up reserve at the ASG. Fan bases love the bragging rights, but what’s best for the player and the team?
Pitching, in general, is ridiculous. Going 4 1/3 inning with 87 to 99 pitches is not sustainable. We, and every team, need pitchers that can consistently get into the 7th or more importantly the 8th. I know nobody does this anymore but I would be embarrassed to pitch 4 2/3 or 5 1/3 innings. I am a starting pitcher and I can’t pitch half a game. So sad. Look in the mirror and do your job.
I’m with you. But the people in charge now simply won’t allow it. Analytics is very prescriptive and after they count 60 pitches the pitcher’s day is done. But they get paid as if they pitch complete games. One dare not deviate from the prescription except when the starting pitcher has a no-no going, and sometimes not even that.
Chasing high velocity and high spin rate has produced a pipeline of pitchers that cannot throw more than 80-100 pitches every 5 games, without too many of them ending up with elbow injuries and TJ surgery. Low velocity crafty pitchers are few and far between these days. The Nats’ coaching staff has actually emphasized moving away from the fastball-first approach with our current staff, and throw more off speed stuff. But the pitcher needs command and control to locate those pitches for strikes. Easier said than done.
Pitch counts get high because pitchers are trying to live on the black since they may not have overpowering stuff. So if they don't have pinpoint control, their pitch counts will go up, and quickly. As a result, they're at 85-90 pitches through 4, and get pulled.
What's frustrating is guys like Cavalli, who does have good stuff, not pounding the zone and instead trying to nibble on the corners. Then you have guys fouling off his good pitches, and he gets those 20+ pitch innings.
It’s not like you can go onto your Amazon Prime account and purchase a top relief arm for next day delivery. Is there a list of highly qualified pitchers sitting at home waiting to be paid, idle but for stingy owners? Mid-season pitcher acquisitions are seldom “bought” with money. They are acquired through trading away valued prospects. How likely is it that a half season rental pitcher heading for FA (that another team is willing to part with) will transform this team into anything more than a wild card team that sees at best an early exit in the playoffs? To make a legit run toward a WS the Nats need way more pitching than it is worth to acquire in dealing away the top prospects it would take to get them. I think if they’re still hovering around the last WC spot at the trade deadline, Toboni may try for some modest relief pitching at the cost of lower level prospects. But I don’t see any major moves that tosses his longterm strategy into the trash bin.
I think Toboni will more than learn the lessons being taught right now, and will address those in the offseason. I don’t see high end FA contracts this early on in Toboni’s timeline this offseason, so it may not yet be a matter of the Lerners’ wallet just yet. We’ll see. However, I don’t see the Lerners spending beyond the revenue actually produced by the team. So if it’s money transferred from the owners’ pockets to fund a higher payroll the team itself can’t pay, then it’s not going to happen.
Also, when the Nats demonstrate that they are a serious team ready to contend, then top line players will want to play for the Nats. Right now they don’t.
Refusing to fund a payroll beyond team revenue is sound business, any business including pro sports. But sometimes owners egos plus billions of $ in stupid money overrule sound business practices. See Steve Cohen.
Bingo…. The Mets are Steve Cohen’s real life fantasy league team. In fact the Mets are constructed like a Fantasy League… heavy on the offense/ super star players, no defense and no role players. You could also add the Angels and Arte Moreno.
V. late to this thread sorry but did u see the Athletic’s MLB player survey on teams they like and teams they don’t like? They don’t like cheap teams. They like getting paid.
I love James Wood! But about Butera's comment that Wood is "one of the greatest hitters in the world" . . . he is on pace to strikeout 228 times this season. That would eclipse the all-time MLB record of 223.
And striking out twice in a row on 6 pitches (and not even swinging at 5 called strikes) certainly won't help him avoiding that dubious feat.
If his OPS, RBI, R, and OBP remain near the top of the league then he can set as many SO records as he wants. Don’t focus on only one stat. But for the last 9 games, he has struck out nearly 2 times per game and only walked 2 times, with a total of 4 hits. Those are the worst numbers of any stretch this season, but it’s only about a tenth of the games he’s played. 90% of the season he’s been lights out. He did hit a double last night.
I agree overall . . . but imagine how OPS, RBI, R, and OBP could improve if he cut down on the Ks even a little. An out is an out, no matter what, but if a few of those "struck out looking" events turned into a bloop single . . . or even into a productive out, a sac, moving up or scoring a runner . . .
The Nationals Season now feels just like planning an epic vacation and getting ready to go places you only read about it books. But just before you take off for beautiful places not experienced, you have a violent case of food poisoning and now there is nothing but crap and misery for hours and days on end. Vacation Cancelled
Arrived at the Outer Banks on Friday afternoon. It’s raining cats and dogs on Saturday morning. The good news is that I couldn’t find the Nats game on the local tv. 😎
Wood looks lost at the plate right now. Not sure what the answer is. In my opinion, he should sit out a game or two to re-set. Is he 100 percent healthy ? Does he have a vision problem?
He could probably use a rest, or maybe be limited to DH for more games. It’s now 9 games I would assign to his recent slump, although he came out of it for one very good game in the middle of this mini-slump to help beat the Phillies in the first game of the series with 2 hits (1 2B), 2 R and 1 BB. Remember that victory?
But in the 9 games since June 17 he’s got only 4 hits in 38 AB, although 3 of them for doubles (and one of those last night). Thats a .105 BA. Ouch. The worst of it though is this: only 2 walks, but 17 strikeouts! He had been averaging closer to a strikeout a game previously, so that number has nearly doubled, while the walks have dropped. The first half of June he was fine. 17 H in 53 AB, .321 BA, 4 HR, 9 BB. I’m not getting too worried yet. But hopefully he gets out of this funk sooner rather than later.
WHOOF
1-4 with likely 2 more losses to come this weekend….they gap between the team’s talent and record is starting to close and, like far too many other seasons, it seems June or July in Baltimore is where any hopes for a decent season go to die…..sigh - it was a fun half season at least.
This is far too pessimistic an outlook. Let me quote Butch Cassidy here: “Boy, a few dark clouds appear on your horizon, you just go all to pieces, don't you?"
It’s way too early to raise the white flag.
I’m not pessimistic - the record is above the talent level and, over many years of watching baseball, I’ve seen overachieving teams sink to their talent level in the dog days of July and August.
I think that’s what the future holds for the 2026 Nationals, like it has for countless teams before. The only ray of hope is the run differential is in line with the record, but I think that will also go down, especially after the rich get richer at the deadline and the have nots start playing not for wins but to find out who’s part of a better team in the future. I think the Nats will be in that category and bring up Morales and King and others to see what they’ve got.
It will be great to be wrong and they may do better after this, in my mind near inevitable 1-6 week, but I just don’t see a good, .500 or better team here. The hitting is starting to regress and the pitching is some of the worst in MLB history. That translates to 72-90 to me, not 84-78 or something like that.
No surrender, just calling out what I see.
Fair enough. Your prediction may prove correct. But that doesn’t make it any less pessimistic. I just prefer optimism. No offense intended.
No offense taken at all.
Your outlook is much healthier and the analyses you often offer here are informed and insightful. I appreciate those insights and I hope the Nationals exceed my expectations and meet yours this season.
Thanks for the kind words. I was just being tongue in cheek with the Butch Cassidy quote. The last few games have been quite depressing to me as well.
Nats try an old fashioned, boring way to lose….. never lead. Way to go, boys.
“Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.” 😀 Desultory….
I'll have to get my water pipe out of somewhere:))
This is why throwing away those games is so painful. Sometimes you have ones like this one.
And sometimes you have games you throw away. As well as steal from a team who returns the favor. You just can’t hang a season on one game’s bad result. The Nats have a significant flaw: it’s pitching. That flaw left uncorrected is going to result in those “thrown away” games. More like those losses are coming, in amongst the victories that the highest scoring offense delivers. But the team with the highest runs allowed is also going to lose games like that. Until the starting pitchers regularly make it through at least the 5th inning and occasionally the 6th, the bullpen will continue to throw the most innings in the league and be overworked. And that’s a bullpen with its own flaws that do not need to be exacerbated like that.
Totally!
Hats off to the pitching tn. LOVED what I saw from Zak Kent.
Hitting had an off night. It’s fine. Get it done tomorrow. Foster Day is upon us.
Will be at Gunnar bobblehead day, rooting for Nats.
Hopefully lady luck in their corner.
Nice fielding by Mr. Wood.
I was at tonight's game. Went to one earlier in Cleveland that was like a home run derby, this one was almost a no run derby. Oh well, better luck tomorrow night. Can't blame this one on the bullpen though.
As the bullpen breathes a sigh of relief.
In a slump for sure. But talent doesn’t just suddenly disappear: CJ, Woods, Mead, Young…the list goes on. They’ll be back.
U forgot Lile. Don't think Mead is in a slump
Let this one sink in for a moment. Butera called James “one of the greatest hitters in the world”. Then why is he in the leadoff spot? He has 20 bombs, so far, and 14 of them have been solo shots. Who is he driving in? Certainly not the back end of the lineup. Why not put James in the 4th or 5th spot BEHIND guys that actually are getting on base. Try Crews or CJ or JY or Mead hitting ahead of James. Your best hitters should be in the 3-4-5 spots. FYI… the other 6 bombs have only come with 6 runners on base. Ricky Henderson hit leadoff because he got on base and stole a ton of bases. James only has 13 swipes this year.
For a while James Wood led the majors in OBP (not anymore) and he still leads the majors in runs and the league in walks. His 20 dingers and 49 RBI aren’t shabby. In general supposedly advance analytics decree your best batters should bat as high up in the lineup as possible to get the most chances to bat. Wood still leads the majors with Plate Appearances. It’s understandable that some people feel he shouldn’t lead off, but there is a justification for it. At least when he hits like he was for most of the first half.
“Why not put James in the 4th or 5th spot BEHIND guys that actually are getting on base.”
Who is actually getting on base more than James?
Answer: “Nobody.”
James leads the team in OBP and has more than double the walks (61) than the next closest teammate (Abrams, 30). James also has the second most RBI hitting leadoff.
Butera is not unschooled in lineup construction. Putting your best hitter at leadoff is the modern trend. Data shows it results in more runs. One reason is it insures your best hitter collects more PA and AB than every other player per game and over the course of the season, which in turn has a not-insignificant affect on season offensive numbers.
In MLB, the team that scores first wins the game 65-70% of the time. Those team-leading and leadoff bombs? A lot of those produce 1-0 leads.
Butera’s lineups with Wood batting leadoff have produced the highest scoring offense in the Major Leagues. This is NOT an area that needs improvement.
Yes, that!
I’m starting to think JW needs the break to be an actual break, rather than being a back up reserve at the ASG. Fan bases love the bragging rights, but what’s best for the player and the team?
Could not agree more.
A letdown after an emotional series with the Phils. After that series we get the rest of the season.
I didn't see the game (did catch the last 2 innings on the radio), but yeah, it sounded a lot like a let-down after an intense 4-game series.
No worries.
Vic Selestay
Will be following Trevor Sunday. Hope Wood breaks out. Nats need his bat. Hope Crews continues to improve.
Also hoping House comes up soon.
Pitching, in general, is ridiculous. Going 4 1/3 inning with 87 to 99 pitches is not sustainable. We, and every team, need pitchers that can consistently get into the 7th or more importantly the 8th. I know nobody does this anymore but I would be embarrassed to pitch 4 2/3 or 5 1/3 innings. I am a starting pitcher and I can’t pitch half a game. So sad. Look in the mirror and do your job.
I’m with you. But the people in charge now simply won’t allow it. Analytics is very prescriptive and after they count 60 pitches the pitcher’s day is done. But they get paid as if they pitch complete games. One dare not deviate from the prescription except when the starting pitcher has a no-no going, and sometimes not even that.
Chasing high velocity and high spin rate has produced a pipeline of pitchers that cannot throw more than 80-100 pitches every 5 games, without too many of them ending up with elbow injuries and TJ surgery. Low velocity crafty pitchers are few and far between these days. The Nats’ coaching staff has actually emphasized moving away from the fastball-first approach with our current staff, and throw more off speed stuff. But the pitcher needs command and control to locate those pitches for strikes. Easier said than done.
Pitch counts get high because pitchers are trying to live on the black since they may not have overpowering stuff. So if they don't have pinpoint control, their pitch counts will go up, and quickly. As a result, they're at 85-90 pitches through 4, and get pulled.
What's frustrating is guys like Cavalli, who does have good stuff, not pounding the zone and instead trying to nibble on the corners. Then you have guys fouling off his good pitches, and he gets those 20+ pitch innings.
Just like Gore used to do.
I wonder what the Nats ownership thought after the Phils series? Were they moved to do something about it (I.e., open their checkbook)?
It’s not like you can go onto your Amazon Prime account and purchase a top relief arm for next day delivery. Is there a list of highly qualified pitchers sitting at home waiting to be paid, idle but for stingy owners? Mid-season pitcher acquisitions are seldom “bought” with money. They are acquired through trading away valued prospects. How likely is it that a half season rental pitcher heading for FA (that another team is willing to part with) will transform this team into anything more than a wild card team that sees at best an early exit in the playoffs? To make a legit run toward a WS the Nats need way more pitching than it is worth to acquire in dealing away the top prospects it would take to get them. I think if they’re still hovering around the last WC spot at the trade deadline, Toboni may try for some modest relief pitching at the cost of lower level prospects. But I don’t see any major moves that tosses his longterm strategy into the trash bin.
I meant FAs for next season and beyond. I should’ve made that clear.
I think Toboni will more than learn the lessons being taught right now, and will address those in the offseason. I don’t see high end FA contracts this early on in Toboni’s timeline this offseason, so it may not yet be a matter of the Lerners’ wallet just yet. We’ll see. However, I don’t see the Lerners spending beyond the revenue actually produced by the team. So if it’s money transferred from the owners’ pockets to fund a higher payroll the team itself can’t pay, then it’s not going to happen.
Also, when the Nats demonstrate that they are a serious team ready to contend, then top line players will want to play for the Nats. Right now they don’t.
Refusing to fund a payroll beyond team revenue is sound business, any business including pro sports. But sometimes owners egos plus billions of $ in stupid money overrule sound business practices. See Steve Cohen.
Bingo…. The Mets are Steve Cohen’s real life fantasy league team. In fact the Mets are constructed like a Fantasy League… heavy on the offense/ super star players, no defense and no role players. You could also add the Angels and Arte Moreno.
V. late to this thread sorry but did u see the Athletic’s MLB player survey on teams they like and teams they don’t like? They don’t like cheap teams. They like getting paid.
There also the matter of the significant possibility of no MLB in 2027. 😡
I love James Wood! But about Butera's comment that Wood is "one of the greatest hitters in the world" . . . he is on pace to strikeout 228 times this season. That would eclipse the all-time MLB record of 223.
And striking out twice in a row on 6 pitches (and not even swinging at 5 called strikes) certainly won't help him avoiding that dubious feat.
If his OPS, RBI, R, and OBP remain near the top of the league then he can set as many SO records as he wants. Don’t focus on only one stat. But for the last 9 games, he has struck out nearly 2 times per game and only walked 2 times, with a total of 4 hits. Those are the worst numbers of any stretch this season, but it’s only about a tenth of the games he’s played. 90% of the season he’s been lights out. He did hit a double last night.
I agree overall . . . but imagine how OPS, RBI, R, and OBP could improve if he cut down on the Ks even a little. An out is an out, no matter what, but if a few of those "struck out looking" events turned into a bloop single . . . or even into a productive out, a sac, moving up or scoring a runner . . .
And at some pont this season, wasn't he leading the league in walks?
The Nationals Season now feels just like planning an epic vacation and getting ready to go places you only read about it books. But just before you take off for beautiful places not experienced, you have a violent case of food poisoning and now there is nothing but crap and misery for hours and days on end. Vacation Cancelled
Arrived at the Outer Banks on Friday afternoon. It’s raining cats and dogs on Saturday morning. The good news is that I couldn’t find the Nats game on the local tv. 😎
Heading to Corolla on Monday morning.
I need a baseball vacation. -:(
Order up some good weather!
Wood looks lost at the plate right now. Not sure what the answer is. In my opinion, he should sit out a game or two to re-set. Is he 100 percent healthy ? Does he have a vision problem?
He could probably use a rest, or maybe be limited to DH for more games. It’s now 9 games I would assign to his recent slump, although he came out of it for one very good game in the middle of this mini-slump to help beat the Phillies in the first game of the series with 2 hits (1 2B), 2 R and 1 BB. Remember that victory?
But in the 9 games since June 17 he’s got only 4 hits in 38 AB, although 3 of them for doubles (and one of those last night). Thats a .105 BA. Ouch. The worst of it though is this: only 2 walks, but 17 strikeouts! He had been averaging closer to a strikeout a game previously, so that number has nearly doubled, while the walks have dropped. The first half of June he was fine. 17 H in 53 AB, .321 BA, 4 HR, 9 BB. I’m not getting too worried yet. But hopefully he gets out of this funk sooner rather than later.