I don't think they're willing to give up much of any legitimate prospect capital for a short-term fix. Now, maybe if they were acquiring a reliever with multiple years of control. I could maybe see them giving up a medium-tier prospect. But a top-10 guy? I seriously doubt it.
The good news: They probably don't have to give up a legit prospect for a rental reliever. Think back to your Nats history. Who did they trade for Daniel Hudson? Kyle Johnston. Who did they trade for Brandon Kintzler? Tyler Watson. Who did they trade for Mark Melancon? Taylor Hearn and Felipe (Rivero) Vazquez ... who did become an All-Star before his career fell apart due to major off-field issues.
Point is, they could probably make multiple moves to help the bullpen that don't require trading away prospects of significant value.
Mark, it seems that Trevor Williams is ready soon, and probably Jake Irvin is going to be not far behind assuming all goes well. How do they fit into our pitching situation? Six main rotation? Does somebody move to the bullpen?
My best guess: Irvin goes back to the rotation, with Williams and Andrew Alvarez going to the bullpen as multi-inning relievers. We've already seen Alvarez pair up well with Zack Littell before. Williams could maybe back up Miles Mikolas, though both are right-handed so that's not quite as ideal a setup. I don't think they go with a six-man rotation, but they'll happily take more multi-inning relievers with at least a little bit of a positive track record.
The bullpen failures the first half plus the pitching talent on display at the ASG showed how far the Nats are from being a well-rounded contender. Who do you see as most likely to be trade options to build for the future? Mead wasn’t in their long term plans and has to be a peak value. Same with Garcia Jr.
I agree that even in a best-case scenario, the 2026 Nationals are not serious World Series contenders. The question really is whether it's worth it to go all-in on a wild-card berth or not. My response to that: It's worth it, but not at the expense of possibly being a World Series contender in 2027, 2028 and beyond. So I don't see them trading away anything that might help them realize that medium-term goal. If you're going to trade Mead or Garcia (and I'm not saying they wouldn't), you have to get something back you believe gives you a better chance of winning big in the next few years than they would. Trade Garcia for a couple of 19-year-old pitching prospects currently in low A-ball? No. Trade him for a 23-year-old pitcher on the cusp of reaching the majors? I'd consider that. Mead, I think, is a really intriguing question. He's probably not a huge part of the long-term plan, but he could certainly be a valuable part of a legit contender as a right-handed corner infielder. And he's under control for five years. So, I'd have to really get something of value back for him to make that move.
In your opinion, do you think the Nationals would be best-suited trading Luis Garcia, Jr. and/or Curtis Mead? Or would you prefer them to try and trade someone like Yohandy Morales?
Note for anyone who wants to know these things. Garcia still has one arb year left before he's eligible for free agency. Mead has 5. I don't foresee them moving Mead, but he could fetch a lot of value as a utility infielder with power and good swing decisions.
A Cleveland blog recently wrote a piece urging the Guardians' leadership to trade for Mead. They used stats to highlight his poor defense but said his offense more than compensated for that.
So, like I just said, it's really about what kind of offers they're getting in return for those guys. If someone's offering a legit prospect who could be part of the long-term plan, then yeah, it's worth considering. But if you're only getting younger, lower-level prospects, I don't think it's necessary to pull the trigger, because one or both guys could be a big part of what you're trying to do in 2027. I don't see a contending team trading for someone like Morales who isn't on the 40-man roster and hasn't played in the majors yet. If the Nats trade him, it's because they're getting a major-league reliever in return to try to bolster the bullpen now.
Mark, thanks for doing this. How do you foresee the Foster Griffin situation playing out? I'd love to see him on the team for the next several years, but can understand the desire to capitalize on what could be his peak value.
It really is an unusual situation they now find themselves in, with a 30-year-old rookie who's still going to be a free agent, having an All-Star season. I'd love to see the Nats make Griffin a serious extension offer to keep him around for the next three years at minimum. But I completely understand why he might not just take that at this point, knowing he's a few months away from being able to negotiate with 30 teams. There's nothing stopping him from returning to the Nats, by the way, as a free agent. But there's always risk in that. So, does the team trade him now and try to get something of real long-term value in return? I think you have to at least explore that possibility. But I wouldn't feel the need to just trade him for whatever the best offer is, no matter what. Set your asking price and stick to it. If nobody matches it, keep him and try to get him to sign an extension.
It really depends where they are in the standings come Aug. 3. Or maybe Aug. 1, since moves typically start happening a day or two in advance of the deadline. If they're under .500, or staring up at five teams ahead of them in the wild card standings as is currently the case, I think they probably trade Griffin and at least listen to offers for guys like Garcia, Mead and Young. If they're over .500, with only a couple teams ahead of them in the race, I'm not sure they trade any current major leaguers (unless they're getting pieces in return who can help them in the short-term, as opposed to prospects).
Mark, can you explain the recent line up absences for Jacob Young? Are they due to a sore hand or is there more to it, i.e. slowly working him out of the starting rotation in favor of Crews, or possibly making sure he is healthy to make him a more profitable trade option? Appreciate your work.
How much longer is the Andres Chapparo experiment going to go? It just isn't working and Yohandy Morales is tearing up (.298/.372/.545) Triple A. Albi Ortiz got the (one game) call - any chance they pull the plug? #freeyohandy
Harry Ford is batting 223 with a 705 OPS in Rochester. These numbers are well below his previous minor league numbers and he has almost 2000 bats under his belt in the minor leagues. Do you think the team still regards him as their future catcher or do you think the resurgence of Ruiz has changed their thinking?
Do you see Toboni allowing how the team plays up to the deadline as the deciding factor in whether to sell, stay pat or buy at the deadline? If they were to lose more than win the next two weeks, does that make it easy to then trade Griffin and some others and throw in the towel on the season (à la 2021, to a lesser degree)? If they somehow get within a game or two of the Wild Card, does that truly flip the script on trading main pieces like Griffin? I still don’t see a long run in the playoffs with this pitching staff. So does Toboni sell anyway in that scenario?
Doolittle was a one inning guy( for the most part) and a defined inning. He knew how to prepare for that role and did it reasonably well. Does he have much of a voice within the brain trust on pen management?
The ball/strike challenge system has been well-received. Has anyone calculated the actual benefit/losses (or win probability) to teams from the ball/strike challenge system? Or the individual breakdown to players? For the attention it receives, it would be nice to see the actual results.
If love to see a stat (maybe it exists) like ABS WPA. In other words, forget success rate. What is the total team win probability added (or lost) from ABS challenges?
The idea would be to 1) reward challenges used in the highest leverage situations, 2) discount the minimal impact of "wasting"'a challenge in the 9th inning, and to find a way to 3) penalize the use of challenges in stupid situations.
Much has been said about the bullpen. It’s bad. Has conversation been brought up, however, if our catchers have had any degree of influence on this? I’m not looking to throw them under the bus, and I’m more than willing to accept that in terms of our bullpen arms, the Stuff+ simply isn’t there. However, I could also see a world where the sheer amount of pitcher churn and the relative youth of our catchers may be leading to less-than-optimal sequencing and pitch-calling. I also ask leaning more optimistically, in that just like their defense has improved, their leadership and in-game decision making will improve over time.
Some of the other analytically-minded rebuild teams (Marlins and Rockies) have taken to calling pitches from the dugout. Have you heard if the Nationals have been doing anything similar?
Love it. I've been wondering the same thing. With bullpen personnel that changes multiple times a week, and 30 different pitchers used (thirty!), my first thought is "how does Keibert keep up?"
Mark, what is your view on how likely Toboni & Co might be willing to give up prospect capital to fix the bullpen?
I don't think they're willing to give up much of any legitimate prospect capital for a short-term fix. Now, maybe if they were acquiring a reliever with multiple years of control. I could maybe see them giving up a medium-tier prospect. But a top-10 guy? I seriously doubt it.
The good news: They probably don't have to give up a legit prospect for a rental reliever. Think back to your Nats history. Who did they trade for Daniel Hudson? Kyle Johnston. Who did they trade for Brandon Kintzler? Tyler Watson. Who did they trade for Mark Melancon? Taylor Hearn and Felipe (Rivero) Vazquez ... who did become an All-Star before his career fell apart due to major off-field issues.
Point is, they could probably make multiple moves to help the bullpen that don't require trading away prospects of significant value.
Mark, it seems that Trevor Williams is ready soon, and probably Jake Irvin is going to be not far behind assuming all goes well. How do they fit into our pitching situation? Six main rotation? Does somebody move to the bullpen?
I was about to ask this question, so I shall remain silent. Kudos for beating me to the punch.
I’m pleasantly surprised Trevor is so close to being back. I had written him off.
Could we give Mikolas a flyer in the pen? Less innings and he can ramp up the velocity, which he has done at times this year.
My best guess: Irvin goes back to the rotation, with Williams and Andrew Alvarez going to the bullpen as multi-inning relievers. We've already seen Alvarez pair up well with Zack Littell before. Williams could maybe back up Miles Mikolas, though both are right-handed so that's not quite as ideal a setup. I don't think they go with a six-man rotation, but they'll happily take more multi-inning relievers with at least a little bit of a positive track record.
Makes sense, honestly Trevor Williams feels like acquiring a veteran reliever.
He had been both a starter and reliever before the Nats acquired him.
The bullpen failures the first half plus the pitching talent on display at the ASG showed how far the Nats are from being a well-rounded contender. Who do you see as most likely to be trade options to build for the future? Mead wasn’t in their long term plans and has to be a peak value. Same with Garcia Jr.
I agree that even in a best-case scenario, the 2026 Nationals are not serious World Series contenders. The question really is whether it's worth it to go all-in on a wild-card berth or not. My response to that: It's worth it, but not at the expense of possibly being a World Series contender in 2027, 2028 and beyond. So I don't see them trading away anything that might help them realize that medium-term goal. If you're going to trade Mead or Garcia (and I'm not saying they wouldn't), you have to get something back you believe gives you a better chance of winning big in the next few years than they would. Trade Garcia for a couple of 19-year-old pitching prospects currently in low A-ball? No. Trade him for a 23-year-old pitcher on the cusp of reaching the majors? I'd consider that. Mead, I think, is a really intriguing question. He's probably not a huge part of the long-term plan, but he could certainly be a valuable part of a legit contender as a right-handed corner infielder. And he's under control for five years. So, I'd have to really get something of value back for him to make that move.
I was reading this article on FanGraphs morning (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2026-replacement-level-killers-first-base-second-base/) about all the teams in the playoff hunt that need a 1B or 2B.
In your opinion, do you think the Nationals would be best-suited trading Luis Garcia, Jr. and/or Curtis Mead? Or would you prefer them to try and trade someone like Yohandy Morales?
Note for anyone who wants to know these things. Garcia still has one arb year left before he's eligible for free agency. Mead has 5. I don't foresee them moving Mead, but he could fetch a lot of value as a utility infielder with power and good swing decisions.
A Cleveland blog recently wrote a piece urging the Guardians' leadership to trade for Mead. They used stats to highlight his poor defense but said his offense more than compensated for that.
So, like I just said, it's really about what kind of offers they're getting in return for those guys. If someone's offering a legit prospect who could be part of the long-term plan, then yeah, it's worth considering. But if you're only getting younger, lower-level prospects, I don't think it's necessary to pull the trigger, because one or both guys could be a big part of what you're trying to do in 2027. I don't see a contending team trading for someone like Morales who isn't on the 40-man roster and hasn't played in the majors yet. If the Nats trade him, it's because they're getting a major-league reliever in return to try to bolster the bullpen now.
Mark, thanks for doing this. How do you foresee the Foster Griffin situation playing out? I'd love to see him on the team for the next several years, but can understand the desire to capitalize on what could be his peak value.
It really is an unusual situation they now find themselves in, with a 30-year-old rookie who's still going to be a free agent, having an All-Star season. I'd love to see the Nats make Griffin a serious extension offer to keep him around for the next three years at minimum. But I completely understand why he might not just take that at this point, knowing he's a few months away from being able to negotiate with 30 teams. There's nothing stopping him from returning to the Nats, by the way, as a free agent. But there's always risk in that. So, does the team trade him now and try to get something of real long-term value in return? I think you have to at least explore that possibility. But I wouldn't feel the need to just trade him for whatever the best offer is, no matter what. Set your asking price and stick to it. If nobody matches it, keep him and try to get him to sign an extension.
Mark - player most likely to be traded away before the deadline? Thanks!
It really depends where they are in the standings come Aug. 3. Or maybe Aug. 1, since moves typically start happening a day or two in advance of the deadline. If they're under .500, or staring up at five teams ahead of them in the wild card standings as is currently the case, I think they probably trade Griffin and at least listen to offers for guys like Garcia, Mead and Young. If they're over .500, with only a couple teams ahead of them in the race, I'm not sure they trade any current major leaguers (unless they're getting pieces in return who can help them in the short-term, as opposed to prospects).
Mark, can you explain the recent line up absences for Jacob Young? Are they due to a sore hand or is there more to it, i.e. slowly working him out of the starting rotation in favor of Crews, or possibly making sure he is healthy to make him a more profitable trade option? Appreciate your work.
How much longer is the Andres Chapparo experiment going to go? It just isn't working and Yohandy Morales is tearing up (.298/.372/.545) Triple A. Albi Ortiz got the (one game) call - any chance they pull the plug? #freeyohandy
Harry Ford is batting 223 with a 705 OPS in Rochester. These numbers are well below his previous minor league numbers and he has almost 2000 bats under his belt in the minor leagues. Do you think the team still regards him as their future catcher or do you think the resurgence of Ruiz has changed their thinking?
Do you see Toboni allowing how the team plays up to the deadline as the deciding factor in whether to sell, stay pat or buy at the deadline? If they were to lose more than win the next two weeks, does that make it easy to then trade Griffin and some others and throw in the towel on the season (à la 2021, to a lesser degree)? If they somehow get within a game or two of the Wild Card, does that truly flip the script on trading main pieces like Griffin? I still don’t see a long run in the playoffs with this pitching staff. So does Toboni sell anyway in that scenario?
Doolittle was a one inning guy( for the most part) and a defined inning. He knew how to prepare for that role and did it reasonably well. Does he have much of a voice within the brain trust on pen management?
The ball/strike challenge system has been well-received. Has anyone calculated the actual benefit/losses (or win probability) to teams from the ball/strike challenge system? Or the individual breakdown to players? For the attention it receives, it would be nice to see the actual results.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/abs-challenges
If love to see a stat (maybe it exists) like ABS WPA. In other words, forget success rate. What is the total team win probability added (or lost) from ABS challenges?
The idea would be to 1) reward challenges used in the highest leverage situations, 2) discount the minimal impact of "wasting"'a challenge in the 9th inning, and to find a way to 3) penalize the use of challenges in stupid situations.
Which Nationals farmhands do ytou think will get a chance with the Nats between now and of the season?
Mark, who do you think gets called up to the big league club next?
Much has been said about the bullpen. It’s bad. Has conversation been brought up, however, if our catchers have had any degree of influence on this? I’m not looking to throw them under the bus, and I’m more than willing to accept that in terms of our bullpen arms, the Stuff+ simply isn’t there. However, I could also see a world where the sheer amount of pitcher churn and the relative youth of our catchers may be leading to less-than-optimal sequencing and pitch-calling. I also ask leaning more optimistically, in that just like their defense has improved, their leadership and in-game decision making will improve over time.
Some of the other analytically-minded rebuild teams (Marlins and Rockies) have taken to calling pitches from the dugout. Have you heard if the Nationals have been doing anything similar?
Love it. I've been wondering the same thing. With bullpen personnel that changes multiple times a week, and 30 different pitchers used (thirty!), my first thought is "how does Keibert keep up?"
What are your midseason grades for Toboni and Butera? Thanks for the Q&A, Mark.